Textiles were the first products of industrialization, and I expect that the technology required to make cloth and fine thread will survive. Owing to the fact that they utilize relatively simple technologies to produce and create staple items that wear out fast enough, that demand will be steady. I also expect that forged tools will have both a steady market and producers willing and able to meet that demand. How affordable these products will be is a different question.
The items I expect to disappear will either require a host of technologies and inputs that will be impossible to maintain, like microprocessors, plastics, and high grade alloys, or have a viable lower cost option like trains versus automobiles and paved highways. Eventually, I expect all surving technologies to evolve into their most simplistic and easily repairable forms.
I also expect market action to mask much of the process both through price guiding substitutions and an expansion of second-hand markets in a continuation of an already well established trend. The availability of items continues for a while after the manufacturer stops producing them, and the price difference between new and used makes it seem fine for years after the last item was produced. This provides ample time for alternatives to become established.
An example of this is auto parts. I remember in the 90s, if I wanted to install used parts, I would go to a junkyard and remove them. Now, I can order "refurbished" parts online for the same price as the local junkyard charges. Increasingly refurbished options are the only ones available, and eventually, the supply of those will dry up. My spouse has a classic car with a small but loyal enthusiast base. The forum dedicated to that model often has posts on how to fix, substitute, or manufacture parts as replacements are rarely available. It's important to note that what mechanics usually do is replace parts, not fix them.
Where I think the best place to look for items that will be "the heirlooms of the future" is at the intersection of high technology and basic needs. I really wasn't joking about the titanium cutlery, but I didn't explain it well. It is both an item of high technology, likely to last millennia, and extremely useful for injured, frail, or elderly people without the strength to use heavier utensils.
I expect sewing machines to be another item because the needles they use have been standardized for over a hundred years, guaranteeing a solid market for specialized metalsmiths. Also, most machines can work without electricity via the hand wheel.
Hand tools are interesting. I expect the most useful ones to be continually manufactured, like knives and hammers, but like the auto parts example, others will eventually disappear to time. The question will be what will be deemed valuable enough to take care of and what conditions will inform that decision since the scrap value will increase over time.
I imagine that for the remainder of my lifetime, it will be skills and not goods that will prove to be the most valuable.
Carts survived the fall of Rome
The items I expect to disappear will either require a host of technologies and inputs that will be impossible to maintain, like microprocessors, plastics, and high grade alloys, or have a viable lower cost option like trains versus automobiles and paved highways. Eventually, I expect all surving technologies to evolve into their most simplistic and easily repairable forms.
I also expect market action to mask much of the process both through price guiding substitutions and an expansion of second-hand markets in a continuation of an already well established trend. The availability of items continues for a while after the manufacturer stops producing them, and the price difference between new and used makes it seem fine for years after the last item was produced. This provides ample time for alternatives to become established.
An example of this is auto parts. I remember in the 90s, if I wanted to install used parts, I would go to a junkyard and remove them. Now, I can order "refurbished" parts online for the same price as the local junkyard charges. Increasingly refurbished options are the only ones available, and eventually, the supply of those will dry up. My spouse has a classic car with a small but loyal enthusiast base. The forum dedicated to that model often has posts on how to fix, substitute, or manufacture parts as replacements are rarely available. It's important to note that what mechanics usually do is replace parts, not fix them.
Where I think the best place to look for items that will be "the heirlooms of the future" is at the intersection of high technology and basic needs. I really wasn't joking about the titanium cutlery, but I didn't explain it well. It is both an item of high technology, likely to last millennia, and extremely useful for injured, frail, or elderly people without the strength to use heavier utensils.
I expect sewing machines to be another item because the needles they use have been standardized for over a hundred years, guaranteeing a solid market for specialized metalsmiths. Also, most machines can work without electricity via the hand wheel.
Hand tools are interesting. I expect the most useful ones to be continually manufactured, like knives and hammers, but like the auto parts example, others will eventually disappear to time. The question will be what will be deemed valuable enough to take care of and what conditions will inform that decision since the scrap value will increase over time.
I imagine that for the remainder of my lifetime, it will be skills and not goods that will prove to be the most valuable.