A Slight Detour
Sep. 8th, 2026 09:45 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
claire_58My blogging here on DreamWIDTH has been a bit irregular this last few weeks. I posted a couple of essays on SubStack that I didn't repost here because those of you who read and comment here are familiar with JMG's work and well aware of where my approach to this all comes from.
But it's led me a bit off the track I had planned and if I'm going to continue posting here it's better if post these two here as well for the sake of continuity. This one was posted Aug 30.
(Yes, I’m looking at you Alexander Volonakis )
What it comes down to is: I’m old.
Don’t get me wrong, I know we have massive ecological problems. Massive. The worst of it is that even though climate change gets all the attention it’s just one of a dozen other devastating crises that shape our predicament.
So what does collapse look like?
Yes, yes it is. See what I said about the triple whammy above.
No. No they won’t. They’ve proven their complete uselessness and incompetence repeatedly for the last 30+ years.
What do we as individuals, families, households, and communities actually experience when things come apart?
First of all, as soon as you can, start living with L.E.S.S. (Less Energy, Stimulation, and Stuff). Reduce your dependance on fragile systems as much as you can. Downsize and reduce your expenses. In the pithy slogan coined by John Michael Greer*** “collapse now and avoid the rush.” That’s the key to a controlled descent.
But it's led me a bit off the track I had planned and if I'm going to continue posting here it's better if post these two here as well for the sake of continuity. This one was posted Aug 30.
What Does Collapse Actually Look Like?
Give up and roll over or …
I got into a tussle recently with someone who had reposted this article from Collapse 2050.
(Yes, I’m looking at you Alexander Volonakis )
So nothing against Collapse 2050 whose blog I’ve barely skimmed or Alexander either for that matter but I can’t help thinking that these kinds of things really aren’t helpful.
Things are bad folks, really bad. Maybe we don’t fully comprehend how bad they are but we don’t need any more excuses to sit on our hands. And I said as much to Alexander.
I’m completely willing to accept that he and Conner may be absolutely right. Maybe it really is game over.
Maybe.
But does that mean no survivors? No actual survivors?
Maybe, maybe not.
And if not … well, why wouldn’t you want to do everything you can to be one?
The end is nigh. Isn’t it always?
What it comes down to is: I’m old.
When I was a young adult in the early 1980’s people were in a froth about the Harmonic Convergence. In 1987 the planets were all going to line up and the combined gravitational pull was going to send us all flying off into space.
In the years running up to the turn of the century everyone was in a flap about Y2K. The computer systems were all going to fail and a crisis of unimaginable proportions would ensue.
Then there was the Mayan Calendar and the world was really going to end, absolutely, for sure this time, guaranteed, in 2012.
So when someone says that by 2030 or 2050 or whenever, that’s it. We’re done for. Well, you’ll have to forgive me if it doesn’t stop me in my tracks.
Apparently, in the years leading up to 1000AD there were people who sold all their possession because it was going to be the second coming of Christ and the world was going to end. Maybe it’s human nature to engage in this kind of drama.
It’s not pretty.
Don’t get me wrong, I know we have massive ecological problems. Massive. The worst of it is that even though climate change gets all the attention it’s just one of a dozen other devastating crises that shape our predicament.
The global industrial empire of USA that has been a major world power since WWII is coming unglued in real time right before our eyes.
Industrialism itself is gasping. We’ve entered the “Scarcity” stage. That’s what terms like “crapification” and “enshitification” are describing. We’re caught in a pinch between resource depletion and mounting pollution levels (And yes, mounting pollution levels includes carbon in the atmosphere. I haven’t forgotten it, minimized it, or dismissed it.)
Our civilization, the one that grew up in Western Europe over the last 1500 years and has dominated the world for last 2 centuries or more has late stage dementia and has begun the convulsions that signal its final death throes.
It’s a triple whammy.
Honestly, I struggle to not fill my blog with doom and gloom.
“It ain’t over until it’s over.” (Yogi Berra*)
So what does collapse look like?
First of all it’s not something that’s going to happen in the future. It’s happening now. It’s all around you.
Second its a slow multi-generational process. It took 300 years for Rome to go down. Even if you count the beginning of the unravelling of Western Civ from the early 20th century we’re looking at 6 - 8 generations before we hit bottom.
Third its uneven and chaotic and it doesn’t hit everywhere all at once. Typically it’s periods of crisis and trauma followed by relative calm where everyone tries to regroup and put things back together. Get used to hearing “the new normal.” It will probably come up again several times in your lifetime.
It’s Different This Time
Yes, yes it is. See what I said about the triple whammy above.
They’ll Think of Something
No. No they won’t. They’ve proven their complete uselessness and incompetence repeatedly for the last 30+ years.
They don’t give a shit. They think they are immune to the convulsions we little people experience and they are currently mesmerized by the chimera of the AI future. Climate change is out.
And no, the AI won’t think of anything either. If you’ve never heard the programming expression “Garbage In; Garbage Out (GIGO)” think about it.
“Making predictions is hard. Especially about the future.” (Yogi Berra**)
What do we as individuals, families, households, and communities actually experience when things come apart?
Most likely what we will experience is a number of large collective crises and small personal crises. Expect anything and everything from large scale national and international events like supply chain failures, war, and big financial disasters to extreme weather events like floods, wildfires, and ice storms to small personal traumas like job loss, health problems, death in the family, and homelessness.
The west is going to get much poorer. That’s not hard to predict. The global system that hoovers up wealth from all over the world is running on empty. That’s why the squeeze is on here at home. Impoverishment and immiseration starts at the bottom with the poorest of the poor and moves up the economic classes until it’s knocking on your door.
None of this is the end of the world. Although, and this is important, it may feel like the end of the world while it’s happening.
Right now we’re in a period of crisis and anything may happen. If you can hang on you may get a chance to reinvent yourself and play another round, consolidate your position and carry on.
So What Can We Do?
First of all, as soon as you can, start living with L.E.S.S. (Less Energy, Stimulation, and Stuff). Reduce your dependance on fragile systems as much as you can. Downsize and reduce your expenses. In the pithy slogan coined by John Michael Greer*** “collapse now and avoid the rush.” That’s the key to a controlled descent.
Live on less than you have and build up skills that you can keep. For my other suggestions you’ll have to read my blog.
I don’t claim to have the answers. I have some ideas. Lots of other people have other ideas. We need lots of people to try lots of different things because we can’t know and won’t know what will work until we see it working.
Stay alert and pay attention.
Collapse is like shooting the rapids. If you’re going to have a controlled descent, you may have to back paddle like mad. At any point where you have breathing space you’ll probably want to shed some more weigh and review your strategy. You may be back paddling like mad again soon.
But honestly isn’t doing something better than sitting around moaning about how much everything sucks?
* Look him up.
** Seriously, look him up. He’s a hoot.
*** John Michael Greer The Long Descent (2008) First edition New Society Publishers; Tenth Anniversary Edition (2019) Founders House. Very prescient and still the best explanation of the slow stepwise pattern of a civilization coming apart. His current blog series is examining his predictions and seeing what he got right or wrong. https://ecosophia.net/
The other lifeboat analogy
Date: 2026-09-09 05:16 pm (UTC)I was always amused by the folks out there back in the 00"s that took to the "lifeboat" theory as propounded by Fitts et al. They were quite expansive about the size and capacity of their proposed lifeboats.
It is my opinion that we are in a lifeboat already. What is happening to most folks is that the lifeboat in which they are a passenger is overloaded and looks pretty "tippy" and "sinky". What folks need to do is figure out what the current cargo manifest isn't really important and throw it overboard.
Re: The other lifeboat analogy
Date: 2026-09-09 09:21 pm (UTC)People want to believe the worst and do nothing. Whenever I suggest there are things to be done I'm accused of being high on "hopium."