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claire_58If you’ve read my previous posts in this series you’ll know that I’m fully aware of how bad things could get. My view is that collapse isn’t a single event but a series of downward steps spread out over the next couple of hundred years any one of which can feel like total collapse to the people who experience them.
Most of the time what we actually experience is decline.2 It’s a frustratingly slow tedious process that has many irritations but nothing to grab onto. No point or event that you can identify and say “this is it.” It’s just ordinary existence with increased frustration, loss, and general cussedness. More of a “death by a thousand cuts” than a single tangible event.
Many people simply can’t see it. Or they can only see extremes. If it isn’t an apocalypse it must be okay. Nothing to worry about.
Many cannot even imagine anything other than a future of infinite technological progress and abundance. Evidence to the contrary is dismissed as a temporary glitch in the system.
Others do see it but they cling to the belief that someone will come along and fix it and we’ll still get the future we’ve been promised all along.
Even if the people around you see the predicament as clearly as you do they may respond with avoidance. Remember the stages of grief from Elisabeth Kubler-Ross? Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and finally Acceptance. You can’t just jump from denial to acceptance.
Wherever the folks around you land, if you’ve reached acceptance, you have to be able function in the world we have while living with the awareness that industrial civilization is coming apart.
Those of us who understand that collapse is an inherent unavoidable reality in an unsustainable system must still keep on doing the best we can in a slowly deteriorating world. We know it has to come apart but we have only general ideas about what might happen and not a clue about when and where and how.
You have to find a way to keep your balance with your feet in two worlds.
We still live in a world with lots of conveniences and comforts and an abundance of stuff. The fact that the slow process of decline means that most of that is likely going to go away over the next two or three generations is not obvious. There’s a basic contradiction between the world we inhabit and the world that’s coming.
If you embrace the mantra “collapse now and avoid the rush” it means foregoing many of the conveniences and comforts on offer now. The fact that many of those conveniences and comforts come with their own frustrations and irritations and may not actually satisfy us or improve our lives helps but it’s sometimes hard to see.
One of the things we don’t normally do is spend time thoughtfully evaluating the technologies on offer to see whether the new stuff is really better than the old stuff. It’s even harder to look at your current set up and deliberately decide to give it up in favour of simpler and more durable technologies that may require more effort and more skill to use. Self denial is hard to justify when the changes are so slow and we are still surrounded by so much.
So, yeah, living in two worlds with two apparently conflicting realities isn’t easy.
In some ways the fantasy of fast collapse is appealing because it’s easy to skip over the actual horrors and traumas it entails and it’s even easier to exaggerate the benefits of everyone finally getting on board. (There’s also the naughty pleasure of having finally been proved right!)
The reality of the long descent, is that it will take several generations and many periods of crisis for us to get down to lasting stable sustainable level of technology and consumption that will allow the seeds of a new civilization to sprout.
This is frustrating for those of us who see our civilization bleeding from all those little cuts. And it’s even worse when we think of all the ecological damage that is still being done and will continue to be done as industrial civ flails around desperately grasping at anything that might keep things going a little longer.
It seems like it would be easier if we could just rip the bandaid off and get it over with.
During the long periods of relative stability or, slow bleed, (to carry on the metaphor) people will always do their very best to convince themselves that the “new normal” is really just “normal”. The way it’s always been and always will be.
This is generally not hard to do and the brief period where “everyone finally gets on board” usually only lasts until the rubble stops bouncing. Most people will go back to seeing things their own way and clinging to whatever beliefs give them the most comfort as soon as they can.
The good news is that whether you believe in fast collapse, or the long descent, or hope that someone somewhere will solve it all so we can go back to the endless progress and abundance of the Star Trek future, what you most need to do right now doesn’t change.
The other good news is that barring a personal crisis or a larger black swan event in your region, the slow periods of relative stability give you time to develop a plan, build up your reserves, learn some useful skills, and get ready for the next period of crisis. The point is that even as a fully fledged collapsenik the best thing to do is to prepare for your most likely near term challenges.
Instead of preparing for a future where there is no power, no gas, and no food at all prepare for outages, shortages, service interruptions, and price hikes. Prepare for ice storms, tornadoes, and whatever extreme weather events are most likely in your part of the world. These things happen whether or not it’s TEOTWAWKI.
Oil, gas, and electricity prices are going to bounce around but they are all going to be trending upward. Prices of everything are going to be trending upwards because everything in an industrial civilization depends on the availability or scarcity of cheap energy.
Being frugal makes sense whether Western Civ collapses or not.
Cutting your expenses, reducing your energy demands, and conserving your resources makes sense even if the economic contraction is temporary. Things may get better and they may not. Either way living within your means, staying solvent, and being financially risk averse is a good strategy.
Whether it’s just prices going up or the supply chains going down, keeping a pantry, an inventory of shelf stable foods you will actually eat, is great strategy. If you have money or if you can get your expenses under control and get far enough ahead that you can shop the sales and buy in bulk when that’s an option that’s a win.
Adopting a DIY attitude and learning to do things for yourself is good practice no matter what life flings at you. It’s a win-win. Most things take practice, sometimes many years of practice, to get good at them. Start now. Build real skills.(and here) Focus on the ones that save you money now. If and when the SHTF you will need them.
If you are considering training for a real job in the secondary economy pour through the trade school offerings to find something that actually suits you. If it’s something that people want or need badly enough that they are still willing to pay for it despite economic downturns, that’s a bonus.
Become a problem solver. It’s good practice.
The future is emergent. We can only see the broad outlines of what will happen. We can’t ever know the when, where and how for sure. That means two things.
First it’s totally legit for you to focus on the possibilities that most concern you and for other people to focus on what concerns them.
We can’t agree on what will happen or what the best response will be. It’s actually better if we don’t.3 We can’t know what will work until we’ve seen it working. Do your own thing but pay attention to what other people are doing. If it’s working for them it might work for you too.
Second stay light on your feet. Don’t get too attached to your plans. Life will throw you a curve or many curves. No matter how good your plans are, no matter how brilliant your strategy, you may need to throw all out and wing it.
Learning to respond to the real situation is essential.
Pay attention to what is. Don’t let yourself pushed in to a panic by the spectre of fast collapse. Don’t let yourself be deluded by those who tell you there isn’t a problem or by your own desire for things to be different.
Be suspicious of anyone who says they can fix it and be especially wary of scapegoating. No one person or group is solely responsible and blaming others or targeting any designated out-group is an ugly distraction.
The things you do today shape the world around you a little and the things you do tomorrow shape it a little more. Focus on taking responsibility for yourself and be patient. Keep the future you want to create in mind and have compassion for those that don’t share your worldview.
1 https://substack.com/home/post/p-212211050
2 This, like many of my ideas, is taken from the work of John Michael Greer https://ecosophia.net/
3 https://archdruidmirror.blogspot.com/2017/06/dissensus-and-organic-process.html
