Trade Goods for the Long Descent
Jun. 23rd, 2024 01:08 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
claire_58mistyfriday titled Durable Replacements For Limited Use Itemshttps://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/284778.html?thread=49359210#cmt49359210
Her intro was “As we are quickly leaving the era of easy abundance, I think it’s time to acknowledge specific durable goods that will make that transition easier.” and as that conversation unfolded I was reminded of a thought experiment we did a few years ago and have revisited from time to time since; an exploration of trade goods for the long descent.
The parameters for suitable goods we established are:
- Products of industrialization;
- readily available and useful now (or in the near future); and
- likely to still be in demand as things unravel.
- Not easy to recreate by hand using low tech tools and resources;
- nor easily substituted with something that could be easily made by hand with low tech tools and resources.
- Non-perishable/durable enough to last into the time where industrial supply has either run out or become prohibitively expensive.
- small/compact/easily stored (some exceptions could be made here.)
We spent some time brain storming items that might fit the criteria. Laser cut steel tea strainers didn’t make it because even though they are nice to have they aren’t really necessary and low tech substitutions (#5) are pretty easy. If you have to have one, a bit of cloth or a basket style bamboo strainers could be used.
Number 6, non perishable/durable is a stumbling block for some things that might otherwise fit. The question to ask are: How durable does it have to be? When is it likely to be needed? Is it possible to extend the useful life with low tech storage methods?
I’m thinking about sewing machine thread here. It’s the weak link for maintaining the useful life of treadle sewing machines. Spinning thread for hand sewing is hard enough; getting a thread fine enough and smooth enough to run through a sewing machine without getting fouled up takes some serious skill.
Any natural fibre thread deteriorates. I still have some cotton thread I bought in the early eighties that still seems strong enough to run through the machine but lately I have noticed seams in stress points giving away. I wouldn’t expect any natural fibre thread bought now to last long enough to still be useful once there is a shortage. Synthetic thread lasts longer so there is a slightly different equation there. The point being that there’s a balance between how durable something has to be and when it might be needed.
As for sewing/mending/textile repairs, needles for both machine and hand sewing; pins; all-metal (the plastic handles just break) scissors (snips and shears) are good choices. I’m not sure about rotary cutters. Although the blades certainly match most of the criteria and they may be in demand for a while after they are no longer being manufactured, I don’t see them lasting. As far as I know they are disposable once they are dull. How durable are the mats? They aren’t easy to reproduce or substitute (#4 and 5) but I suspect that whole technology will fade away as industrialism falters and fails.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t good trade goods. Any investment of this kind is a gamble. Some are riskier than others. In this case you are betting that people will still want to use rotary cutters and mats for some time after they are no longer readily available or affordable. If you can get your stash to the people who want it at the right time you win.
Hand tools for gardening, in contrast, are readily available and useful now (#2) and likely to still be in demand as things unravel (#3) and for a long time to come. High quality garden tools are expensive but keeping tabs on what turns up in thrift stores and yard sales is well worth it even if you are just after back ups for your own use. As is the case with all tools, knowing what is worth having is key to making good investments in anything you are considering as trade goods.
Hand tools for carpentry are another example. Right now they are a niche market. They only marginally fit #2 but they are certainly likely to be in demand as things unravel (#3). Certain items, like hand saws, are not easy to make (#4, not impossible just highly skilled work) and they will certainly last until the power to run the alternatives is gone. Is it worth keeping them until they are needed? Your call.
Tools for working metal, especially files and stones for sharpening and maintaining other tools, are definitely in on almost all counts. Foraging a whetting stone is easy enough if you have the skills to use them; finding a nice flat one that is easy to use if your skills are marginal might be more of a challenge (#5). Grindstones are useful now as are the skills needed to use these kinds of tools. Grindstones can be easily converted to any source of rotary power. They will continue to be useful with minor modifications but are they good trade goods? It might be better to hone your skills and offer a tool maintenance service.
Other possibilities abound. These are just some examples to get your brain cells clicking. I’d love to hear your comments and feedback.
no subject
Date: 2024-06-24 02:03 am (UTC)You're right about the thread, but do recall that the machines hit the market long before factories that ran on electricity, even. 1860s IIRC. I think machine thread manufacture in mills won't disappear, though it could get awkward for a while.
no subject
Date: 2024-06-24 03:45 am (UTC)It depends on how far down things go on the downward slides and what the priorities are for re-grouping during the periods of recovery. If we get the point of WWII "make do and mend," the demand might mean the thread mills keep going but the thread is very expensive.
I'm iffy about accumulating thread but the machine parts, yes, especially for your own machine(s). My daughter and I have the same model of vintage Bernina so I imagine mine will either go to my granddaughter or become a source of parts for hers.
Carts survived the fall of Rome
Date: 2024-06-24 05:57 am (UTC)The items I expect to disappear will either require a host of technologies and inputs that will be impossible to maintain, like microprocessors, plastics, and high grade alloys, or have a viable lower cost option like trains versus automobiles and paved highways. Eventually, I expect all surving technologies to evolve into their most simplistic and easily repairable forms.
I also expect market action to mask much of the process both through price guiding substitutions and an expansion of second-hand markets in a continuation of an already well established trend. The availability of items continues for a while after the manufacturer stops producing them, and the price difference between new and used makes it seem fine for years after the last item was produced. This provides ample time for alternatives to become established.
An example of this is auto parts. I remember in the 90s, if I wanted to install used parts, I would go to a junkyard and remove them. Now, I can order "refurbished" parts online for the same price as the local junkyard charges. Increasingly refurbished options are the only ones available, and eventually, the supply of those will dry up. My spouse has a classic car with a small but loyal enthusiast base. The forum dedicated to that model often has posts on how to fix, substitute, or manufacture parts as replacements are rarely available. It's important to note that what mechanics usually do is replace parts, not fix them.
Where I think the best place to look for items that will be "the heirlooms of the future" is at the intersection of high technology and basic needs. I really wasn't joking about the titanium cutlery, but I didn't explain it well. It is both an item of high technology, likely to last millennia, and extremely useful for injured, frail, or elderly people without the strength to use heavier utensils.
I expect sewing machines to be another item because the needles they use have been standardized for over a hundred years, guaranteeing a solid market for specialized metalsmiths. Also, most machines can work without electricity via the hand wheel.
Hand tools are interesting. I expect the most useful ones to be continually manufactured, like knives and hammers, but like the auto parts example, others will eventually disappear to time. The question will be what will be deemed valuable enough to take care of and what conditions will inform that decision since the scrap value will increase over time.
I imagine that for the remainder of my lifetime, it will be skills and not goods that will prove to be the most valuable.
Re: Carts survived the fall of Rome
Date: 2024-06-24 01:24 pm (UTC)I think smiths are going to make a rollicking comeback in the years ahead, and people who have not just already mastered that art, but are willing and able to *teach* it, will be very much in demand. If you have the know-how and setup to take defunct car scrap or rusty garden furniture or old propane tanks and turn it into knives, shovels, scuffle hoes, frying pans, door hardware, and other essential things... I reckon you'll do allright in the long haul.
I don't think we'll fall so far technologically that they'll be the top of the tech ladder, just that there'll be a hopping local market. And the same goes for machinists, as long as the materials supply chain doesn't totally collapse. If you can't get parts anymore, the guy who can *make* a replacement part is in high demand! I'm curious how much of modern machine-shop equipment could be re-fitted to run on, say, foot-treadles, steam, or hydro power the way they did originally.
Re: Carts survived the fall of Rome
Date: 2024-06-24 02:05 pm (UTC)And yes, all surviving technologies will evolve into their most simplistic and easily repairable forms. The tricky bit about accumulating trade goods is trying figure out when (and, of course, if) it will be needed. People will adapt the technology they use as availability changes. I fully expect repair and recycling of used equipment to shift into high gear.
Making sure we have what we need and want for ourselves is a bit easier. I like your idea of using the abundance of today to supply ourselves with durable goods that last for the long term. After all once gramma and grandpa are gone and everyone else has been using chopsticks all their lives the titanium cutlery is still going to be valuable.
I also expect sewing machines to be a legacy technology. They fit all the criteria and will be so useful that people will hang onto them for as long as possible. Needles and pins are certainly a good candidate for stockpiling. They are so small that even an enormous stash will take up very little space.
I totally agree about skills in the short term (and in the long term). The trade goods thing is more of a fancy that a solid strategy. It's hard to determine what will be useful when and there is no way to make sure your descendants won't just pitch out or sell anything you stockpile. Still, it's an interesting speculation and it's very interesting to see what shows up in thrift stores that might be worth stashing.
Re: Carts survived the fall of Rome
Date: 2024-06-24 02:26 pm (UTC)Interestingly, tools for working metal, particularly for sharpening and keeping all the tools you listed in good repair, topped my husband's list. He is a tool guy and has all of those skills. Or, almost all, at 72 years old he's talking about how he should learn to sharpen handsaws.
He bought some files that were listed on marketplace or somewhere. He said they would be the hardest thing for a blacksmith to make.
I know skills are a better investment than goods but we are old and both of us have lots of useful skills. Since there is no sure way to preserve wealth, trying to figure out how to take advantage of the abundance of today and make it available to the future seems to be as useful as anything else we could do.
Adapting treadle sewing machines to power grindstones
Date: 2024-06-24 07:17 pm (UTC)Re: Adapting treadle sewing machines to power grindstones
Date: 2024-06-24 10:34 pm (UTC)Re: Adapting treadle sewing machines to power grindstones
Date: 2024-06-25 05:02 am (UTC)The grindstone shaft won’t have a keyway to match the one on the pulley you choose but tightening the existing nut should do the job, maybe make some rubber or leather washers if it slips. Some plywood or a wide plank secured to the treadle to mount the grindstone on then spot the pulley above the treadle flywheel and bolt the grindstone in place. If you make the holes in the mounting base a bit larger than the bolts and use fender washers you can make fine alignment adjustments.
I’d use the largest diameter stone available and leave the electric motor intact to increase the overall flywheel weight.
Caveat; I have not done this, it’s just my best guess.
You might also make some large wooden tool rests. For my existing electric stone I’ve made a 45 degree rest from a piece of 4x4, a piece of 1/2 inch plywood screwed to that makes it about 60 degrees. It makes a good stable surface to accurately hollow grind gouges and chisels.
A nice advantage to having it powered by your treadle is that it becomes reversible when you mount a buffing wheel or a hard felt! I had to buy and mount backwards a second grindstone to do that.
I hope this helpful, ask if anything is unclear, Cheers, Rob
Re: Adapting treadle sewing machines to power grindstones
Date: 2024-06-27 12:24 am (UTC)Re: Adapting treadle sewing machines to power grindstones
Date: 2024-06-27 12:31 am (UTC)Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-28 02:39 am (UTC)Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-28 03:12 am (UTC)Good point about the scissors.
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-28 05:39 am (UTC)Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-28 02:47 pm (UTC)I've got a good collection of wax (paraffin and beeswax), candles, and candle making supplies. Lots of canning jars and canning equipment. Sewing stuff: pins needles, buttons, snaps and hook fasteners, zippers, ribbons, and thread. I've been looking for scissors; good ones don't show up often. And I have way too many biscuit tins.
There's a place in Washington or Oregon that sells a product called "otterwax" for waterproofing fabric. I've thought about that, but it has a self life and I think it's something people could figure out pretty easily.
There are lots of things on your list I wouldn't choose since I don't have storage space for them but there's lots here that is compact and portable there too. Guitar strings, hmmm.
Do you have a comprehensive list of skills to share?
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-30 04:02 am (UTC)I began with a newish model of education that I called circuit riding teachers – instead of preachers. Or, maybe they can double as preachers and public speakers.
What they are, is specialists in one or two subjects. History, for example. Maybe Ancient History of Assyria or Renaissance Europe, or Chinese dynasties. Whatever floats their scholarly boat. They know their stuff really well and are capable of presenting their knowledge in at least threes ways: 1) Lecture; 2) Kinetic/dramatic like chemistry demonstrations, or hands-on engine repairs, or puppet shows; 3) Written material presented with old fashioned light box & lens projectors.
They put on three shows a week in one neighborhood, then travel to the next and do their act for the next group of learners. Anyone willing to pay for admission or provide then with meals or fodder for their horse, or whatever the learner community has to trade for knowledge.
Circuit teachers travel during Spring and Fall. In Summer they pitch in with canning chores and harvest work. In winter they return to their home place of training to study and learn more either in their own field or learn something new. Or a different seasonal pattern. Maybe winter travel is easier in warm climates and hot summers are used to study. Whatever works best locally.. In the Study Quarter of the year, maybe they pay a subscription to belong to a live-in library or board with friends, family, or farmers
They can make extra money by sitting in as proctors or administrators of formal examinations. For this purpose, they need letters of recommendation that attest to their integrity from several communities on their accustomed circuit, or from their own teachers.
Other occupations I came up with have a similar communal foundation and structure. For instance, bamboo farming. A network of aunts, uncles, cousins and in-laws can cover a wide market if each household specializes to some extent. Large bore bamboo for high volume water pipes. small diameter pipes for field and garden irrigation; extra strong species for scaffolding, ladders, stock fencing, ultralight planes, etc. One group that collects leaky old water pipes and repurposes them as bean poles and hoop house struts. Young tender bamboo shoots are edible. Tents and yurts and stuffed poles for booms, cranes, sailyards or junkboat sail stays. You get the idea.
Coppicing and using wood shoots for tool handles, baskets, hurdles, wattle-and-daub barn and shed walls, etc. Regional area where a cash crop or fine-made furniture or silk weaving, etc. create quality trade goods as a hedge against a bad year or three in a row if spells of unpredictable weather adversely affect the subsistence crops people rely on to feed themselves and their animals.
Scientific ditch digging and water drainage surveyance of the bumps and hollows in a given field is a very useful skill to have. Dairies are another collective endeavour, as are livestock dung digestion that can produce nearly 24-7 hrs of burn: methane gas valuable for cooking, drying laundry indoors on cold wet days, barley oasts, water purification, salt distillation, ethanol distillery, barn or greenhouse heating, humanure roasting for quicker than 2-3 year processing time, pottery kiln, pizza or bread oven, and generating electricity by heating one side of a bi-metallic electric current inducer.. thus having night time light and refrigeration, or charging batteries when the sun and wind are taking a rest. Solar water heating, and steam laundries can be small group endeavours as well..
Flax, jute, hemp, and kudzu are other versatile crop options. They can provide fiber, oil-rich seed, pig food from mash left over after oil pressing, Linseed oil has many uses, and hemp oil has medicinal properties.
If one family grows a field for fiber, another for seed, and another has a kudzu team that uses goats to clear overgrown hills and hollows, digs up roots to eat or feed pigs, makes vine baskets, cans the young tender leaves like spinach for winter stews, and so forth, again, group work can develop a wole range of skills, not forgetting twining and rope making, paper making, or tar-pitched oakum to stuff down in the cracks between ship planks with plant fiber discards not good for any other purpose. Maybe even fiberboard to pave the farmyard in Mud Season, or mulch and windbreaks to protect spring seedling crops from surprise frosts.
Cobbler for shoes and inkle weaver or spool weaver to make shoelaces is a good combo for a small family.
Charcoal making will be another joint effort that pays off well in many directions, from activated charcoal to treat brown recluse bites to water filtration, to smithing carbon steel knives and more.
Horse breeding, horse-bread baking for long distance travel, mule training, center-wheel cart making and maintenance (more uses for bamboo!) Alcohol-cooled refrigeration, biodiesel fractioning, gunsmithing, gunpowder, glycerin, search and rescue teams, perimeter defense patrols, well-digging and testing, carpet weaving, bookkeeping, farm log keeping for weather and crop rotations, fish farming and fertilizer operations, pottery, gourd growing and turning; small-scale spinning jenny upkeep, felt and flannel making, pump repair...the list goes on and on.
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-30 01:18 pm (UTC)I was actually thinking of skills/trades that could be used now. Either DIY skills that make us more resilient or trade skills a young person might consider as a career. I did another post Skills for the Long Descent that got some other good comments here:
https://claire-58.dreamwidth.org/4578.html
Cobblers. Did you see the discussion of shoes on the current Fugal Friday? We'll need cobblers and durable repairable shoes in the future but we need durable shoes now and the skills to repair our own. The last shoe repair shop here closed during covid.
Charcoal making is an interesting one. There are some Youtubers showing how to make biochar in ordinary household wood stoves. We tried it in our masonry stove and it works great. Charcoal making in the future might look very different than it did in the past. It maybe more of a sideline for people on the outskirts of towns and cities than a separate trade.
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-30 03:03 pm (UTC)But such enterprises do need to be routinely monoitored and inspected. If anyone is naive as I used to be about the quality of pre-fossil fuel foster care, allow me to refer them to the story by Sarah Orne Jewett about an old lady who is fostered out with a stingy and cruel couple who basically starve and freeze her almost to an early death. Or the similar situation in Jane Eyre where the boarding school is run by a cheapskate who routinely serves burnt oatmeal, rancid milk, etc. and provides inadequate care for a tubercular young girl. Or the other Sarah Orne Jewtt story about a household of domestic abuse called “A Jury of Her Peers.” Likewise, if anyone thinks child foster care is going to be soley for the benefit of the child, please read the Anne of Green Gables series where Anne talks matter of factly about the labor of household menial work, child-minding and sick nursing she was obliged to do in her past fostering placements.
Economic reality makes it more likely that people of lesser competence or greater laziness will gladly take money from village, lodge, or parish funds to “care” for an orphaned child or granny in the cheapest ways possible.
Greed will not vanish just because times get hard; in fact, it shows up at its cruelest among the poor and poorest members of a society.
Thus, someone who can provide honest, decent and reliable care for orphaned children and elders could do better than merely getting by. Payment or outright charity in the form of CSA boxes of veggies, bushels of windfall apples, fruit too bruised for market, soup bones and offal meat, etc., could go a long way in feeding dependent members of a society.
In a more urban area, running an inn or hotel for semi-permanent residents could make pretty good money. What can be profitably provided for travellers should also be cost-effective for dependent care.
People who proved public showers or hot baths or steam baths, or caravanserai that give minimal shelter to travellers and their mounts could also make decent money in a crossroads of land and river traffic.
In short, running a large household is a skill that can be learned and cultivated here and now to be ready for any otherwhen.
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-30 08:36 pm (UTC)Have you considered setting up a profile and posting some of these ideas yourself? I would certain subscribe.
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-30 10:29 pm (UTC)Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-06-30 10:46 pm (UTC)I wouldn't worry about doing a regular thing; just post something when you're inspired. If you left a note on the open post that you were going to have a go at the multigenerational living thing I'm sure others would want to come and have a look and even chime in. It seemed like it was getting traction there and Dreamwidth is a better forum for conversations because you can actually respond to comments directly.
Anyway like I said it's fine to post here but it's usually just me paying attention.
Cheers
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-07-01 09:04 pm (UTC)Tinker's Plague, which I digested quickly and loved it and some follow-on conversations with the Author.
Tinker's Sea, that I've managed to pickup two copies, but life has gotten in the way of reading as I try to claw it back to the top of my list.
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/7428837
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/30176007-tinker-s-sea
https://www.stephenpearl.com/
Re: Shopping list...?
Date: 2024-07-01 11:47 pm (UTC)