Trade Goods for the Long Descent

[claire_58]

 On the most recent Frugal Friday (June 21, 2024) there was a post by  mistyfriday titled Durable Replacements For Limited Use Items

https://ecosophia.dreamwidth.org/284778.html?thread=49359210#cmt49359210

 

Her intro was “As we are quickly leaving the era of easy abundance, I think it’s time to acknowledge specific durable goods that will make that transition easier.” and as that conversation unfolded I was reminded of a thought experiment we did a few years ago and have revisited from time to time since; an exploration of trade goods for the long descent.

 

The parameters for suitable goods we established are: 

1. Products of industrialization;
2. readily available and useful now (or in the near future); and 
3. likely to still be in demand as things unravel.
4. Not easy to recreate by hand using low tech tools and resources;  
5. nor easily substituted with something that could be easily made by hand with low tech tools and resources.
6. Non-perishable/durable enough to last into the time where industrial supply has either run out or become prohibitively expensive.
7. small/compact/easily stored (some exceptions could be made here.)

 

We spent some time brain storming items that might fit the criteria. Laser cut steel tea strainers didn’t make it because even though they are nice to have they aren’t really necessary and low tech substitutions (#5) are pretty easy. If you have to have one, a bit of cloth or a basket style bamboo strainers could be used.

 

Number 6, non perishable/durable is a stumbling block for some things that might otherwise fit. The question to ask are: How durable does it have to be? When is it likely to be needed? Is it possible to extend the useful life with low tech storage methods? 

 

I’m thinking about sewing machine thread here. It’s the weak link for maintaining the useful life of treadle sewing machines. Spinning thread for hand sewing is hard enough; getting a thread fine enough and smooth enough to run through a sewing machine without getting fouled up takes some serious skill. 

 

Any natural fibre thread deteriorates. I still have some cotton thread I bought in the early eighties that still seems strong enough to run through the machine but lately I have noticed seams in stress points giving away. I wouldn’t expect any natural fibre thread bought now to last long enough to still be useful once there is a shortage. Synthetic thread lasts longer so there is a slightly different equation there. The point being that there’s a balance between how durable something has to be and when it might be needed.

 

As for sewing/mending/textile repairs, needles for both machine and hand sewing; pins; all-metal (the plastic handles just break) scissors (snips and shears) are good choices. I’m not sure about rotary cutters. Although the blades certainly match most of the criteria and they may be in demand for a while after they are no longer being manufactured, I don’t see them lasting. As far as I know they are disposable once they are dull. How durable are the mats? They aren’t easy to reproduce or substitute (#4 and 5) but I suspect that whole technology will fade away as industrialism falters and fails. 

 

That doesn’t mean they aren’t good trade goods. Any investment of this kind is a gamble. Some are riskier than others. In this case you are betting that people will still want to use rotary cutters and mats for some time after they are no longer readily available or affordable. If you can get your stash to the people who want it at the right time you win.

 

Hand tools for gardening, in contrast, are readily available and useful now (#2) and likely to still be in demand as things unravel (#3) and for a long time to come. High quality garden tools are expensive but keeping tabs on what turns up in thrift stores and yard sales is well worth it even if you are just after back ups for your own use. As is the case with all tools, knowing what is worth having is key to making good investments in anything you are considering as trade goods.

 

Hand tools for carpentry are another example. Right now they are a niche market. They only marginally fit #2 but they are certainly likely to be in demand as things unravel (#3). Certain items, like hand saws, are not easy to make (#4, not impossible just highly skilled work) and they will certainly last until the power to run the alternatives is gone. Is it worth keeping them until they are needed? Your call.

 

Tools for working metal, especially files and stones for sharpening and maintaining other tools, are definitely in on almost all counts. Foraging a whetting stone is easy enough if you have the skills to use them; finding a nice flat one that is easy to use if your skills are marginal might be more of  a challenge (#5). Grindstones are useful now as are the skills needed to use these kinds of tools. Grindstones can be easily converted to any source of rotary power. They will continue to be useful with minor modifications but are they good trade goods? It might be better to hone your skills and offer a tool maintenance service. 

 

Other possibilities abound. These are just some examples to get your brain cells clicking. I’d love to hear your comments and feedback.

Comments

[methylethyl]

Sewing machines revolutionized clothing manufacture. All that can still be done by hand, but... the hours involved! I figure older machines that either started out as treadles or can be converted to it, will hold value for a long time, as well as parts for them.

You're right about the thread, but do recall that the machines hit the market long before factories that ran on electricity, even. 1860s IIRC. I think machine thread manufacture in mills won't disappear, though it could get awkward for a while.

Carts survived the fall of Rome

[mistyfriday]

Textiles were the first products of industrialization, and I expect that the technology required to make cloth and fine thread will survive. Owing to the fact that they utilize relatively simple technologies to produce and create staple items that wear out fast enough, that demand will be steady. I also expect that forged tools will have both a steady market and producers willing and able to meet that demand. How affordable these products will be is a different question.

The items I expect to disappear will either require a host of technologies and inputs that will be impossible to maintain, like microprocessors, plastics, and high grade alloys, or have a viable lower cost option like trains versus automobiles and paved highways. Eventually, I expect all surving technologies to evolve into their most simplistic and easily repairable forms.

I also expect market action to mask much of the process both through price guiding substitutions and an expansion of second-hand markets in a continuation of an already well established trend. The availability of items continues for a while after the manufacturer stops producing them, and the price difference between new and used makes it seem fine for years after the last item was produced. This provides ample time for alternatives to become established.

An example of this is auto parts. I remember in the 90s, if I wanted to install used parts, I would go to a junkyard and remove them. Now, I can order "refurbished" parts online for the same price as the local junkyard charges. Increasingly refurbished options are the only ones available, and eventually, the supply of those will dry up. My spouse has a classic car with a small but loyal enthusiast base. The forum dedicated to that model often has posts on how to fix, substitute, or manufacture parts as replacements are rarely available. It's important to note that what mechanics usually do is replace parts, not fix them.

Where I think the best place to look for items that will be "the heirlooms of the future" is at the intersection of high technology and basic needs. I really wasn't joking about the titanium cutlery, but I didn't explain it well. It is both an item of high technology, likely to last millennia, and extremely useful for injured, frail, or elderly people without the strength to use heavier utensils.

I expect sewing machines to be another item because the needles they use have been standardized for over a hundred years, guaranteeing a solid market for specialized metalsmiths. Also, most machines can work without electricity via the hand wheel.

Hand tools are interesting. I expect the most useful ones to be continually manufactured, like knives and hammers, but like the auto parts example, others will eventually disappear to time. The question will be what will be deemed valuable enough to take care of and what conditions will inform that decision since the scrap value will increase over time.

I imagine that for the remainder of my lifetime, it will be skills and not goods that will prove to be the most valuable.

Adapting treadle sewing machines to power grindstones

[artisanity]

I am wondering how to adapt my old treadle Singer to attach a grindstone or polishing buff to the wheel?

Shopping list...?

[(Anonymous)]

Any good pair of scissor blades, if the handles break there should be a tang to which a wood handle can be fitted. Good quality boar bristle hair brushes, toenail clippers, metal cross-grained nail files, hand mirrors, fine point tweezers, metal picks for tooth-tartar removal, scapels, swedish peelers, meat thermometers, strings and strings filled with buttons like so much wampum money, leather-working tools and scrapers, meat tenderizer hammers, ice picks, safety pins, actual silver silverware, stainless steel tableware, enameled metal cookware and buckets, paper clips, combination padlocks, metal chain, nylon rope and carabiners, block and tackle wheels, S-hooks, nails, asphalt shingles, tarpaper, sandpaper, glues, compasses, magnets, coated copper wire, solder, lead foil, aluminum foil, ace bandages, knitting needles with a loop, galvanized metal spouts for tapping maple and birch trees with a place to hang a bucket built-in, string, cord, and twine of many kinds, pantyhose (many uses besides decorating legs), bright colorful beads, tuned musical chimes, prisms and crystals, shrill safety whistles, dog whistles, swiss army knives, magnesium bars for quick fire starting, carbon steel knives with their own whetstones, pretty printed paper fans in metal cases, threaded screw-in cup hooks and eyes, brassiere hooks and eyes, brass brads for paper fastening, magnifying glasses, Hohner harmonicas, sheet music, wax crayons, water color paint sets for kids or adults, packets of dyes, sterile bandaids, phonograph needles, syringes, clothespins, other things with steel springs or leaf springs, blocks of reuseable blue ice, caster wheels, flashlight bulbs...well, you see more how my mind works than what might be at all feasible as a store of value.